This analysis is intended to understand the Relative Risk Ratio (RR) of death across 50+ armed conflicts since the dawn of the 20th century.
RR = (Military killed / Total military) ÷ (Civilians killed / Total civilians)
Stemming from Epidemiology,Relative risk (RR) is a key measure used to compare the probaility of events happening in exposed populations vs unexposed populations.
- RR < 1 — civilians die at a higher proportional rate than soldiers (signature of genocide / mass atrocity)
- RR ≈ 1 — civilian/combatant distinction has collapsed
- RR » 1 — soldiers bear the fighting; civilians largely spared
Bars are on a split scale — log above RR=1, linear below — so the sub-1 tail doesn't sprawl. Where credible sources disagree the bar becomes a stacked range: progressively lighter shades mark each source, with white ticks at boundaries.
by JoshuaJosephson
10 Comments
I am genuinely surprised by Gaza 2023-25 score, any idea why it’s so high?
Really, really interesting chart!
People are going to downvote this because it conflicts with their viewpoint that the wars in Gaza were genocides.
Bruh
https://preview.redd.it/i5ry9z1gotvg1.png?width=1100&format=png&auto=webp&s=cb102da02b44c8390d881be56f1147a3b5b541dc
Data: IDF ? Why would you ever use an active party as your source ?
Crazy to see that Nanjing is not recognised as a genocide
Reposting my comment:
Puts modern day into perspective, and trends show that total war/independent actors are way deadlier than limited conflicts involving proper states
Raqqah (2017) was SDF (kurds) vs islamic state, not USA VS Syria
Very interesting analysis, even with all the nuance that we could argue about.
Concerning the Iraq-Iran war 1980-1988, I think that thousands of young boys brainwashed to wear military uniforms, don a key around their neck and run into the field, would like you have a word with you about the nuances in the distinctions between mil/civ.
No credibility with the IDF as a source. It’s like getting holocaust numbers from the Wehrmacht.
Dahm didn’t expect Russia-Ukraine to be so high. Really shows that both sides claim of genocide is BS. On the other hand, the extremely high military casualties on both sides are probably driving this number so high