Original post was removed (twice) from r/germany because "its the middle of the night".
Just months ahead of this German state's election scheduled for September 6, 2026, the AfD is 3 seats away from a projected majority (42 seats) in this East German state.
The AfD's support has essentially doubled since the last state election, where they finished with 20.8%.
The AfD is a populist/very right wing party that most Germans deem extremist/racist, but in East Germany they're quite popular. All parties including the CDU (conservatives) refuse to ally with the AfD, choosing more liberal partners instead (firewall).
Polling also suggests 2 parties (FDP, Green) would be removed from the parliament all-together for failing to reach Germany's 5% threshold.
The king-maker would be the BSW faction, which is currently sidelining below 5%, but the election is still a few months away.
Media source: https://dawum.de/Sachsen-Anhalt/Infratest_dimap/2026-05-07/#Umfrageverlauf
Wikipedia article: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Saxony-Anhalt_state_election#Opinion_polls
by Feisty-Ad-6122
2 Comments
Have the Germans learned nothing from what MAGA did in the USA?
I wonder if those polls also factor in the expected voter turnout for every party. If you ask “What party would you vote for, if the elections where next Sunday?”, that might not be enough. If an AfD win is possible, both AfD voters and voters of the other parties will vote in record numbers. The last election (during Covid) hat a turnout of 60.3%, but even the one before had only a turnout of 61.1%.
If the AfD actually wins the majority in one state, that could actually hurt them in the rest of the country, because finally they would have to prove that they can really run a state and solve some of the problems that made people vote for them.
Getting even one third of the seats will give them enough power though to block certain things that require a two third majority. For example the AfD could block any changes in the constitution of the state. The could also block any parliamentary control commission.