[OC] Projected 2026 London Marathon finish times throughout the race
Projected finish times using checkpoints at the 2026 London Marathon, if runners held their current pace to the finish. Sharp spikes at common round target times (3:00, 3:30, 4:00) smooth out as the race goes on.
Looks like a lot of people are aiming to get under 4 hours, but then reality sets in as they get tired.
What might be a fascinating follow-up would be some way to visualize how many people from the inital bucket ended up in each eventual bucket.
scraperbase on
The problem seems to be that those are individual projections aggregated instead of a normal distribution. So if someone reaches 5km in X minutes, the projection says that he will reach the marathon distance in Y minutes and that time is always the same. A projection would get much more accurate if they used historic data to get a distribution instead of a fixed Y for every X.
JWGhetto on
The projected time should have the caveat of “if all goes well”, which it seems it doesn’t go well about 1/4 of the time
5 Comments
Hate that you cant pause this
Looks like a lot of people are aiming to get under 4 hours, but then reality sets in as they get tired.
What might be a fascinating follow-up would be some way to visualize how many people from the inital bucket ended up in each eventual bucket.
The problem seems to be that those are individual projections aggregated instead of a normal distribution. So if someone reaches 5km in X minutes, the projection says that he will reach the marathon distance in Y minutes and that time is always the same. A projection would get much more accurate if they used historic data to get a distribution instead of a fixed Y for every X.
The projected time should have the caveat of “if all goes well”, which it seems it doesn’t go well about 1/4 of the time
My goal: 3h55m
Actual time: 4h22m
Graph checks out!