[OC] Post-Pandemic Shifts in U.S. Housing Seasonality: Earlier Peaks and Stronger Regional Effects

Seasonal patterns in the U.S. housing market have shifted after the COVID-19 pandemic, with earlier peaks, amplified fluctuations, and notable regional differences (especially stronger in colder climates).

DOI: 10.3390/realestate2040022

Full research article (open access): https://www.mdpi.com/2813-8090/2/4/22

Hi,

A new open-access study published in *Real Estate* (2025) examines how the COVID-19 pandemic altered seasonal patterns in the U.S. housing market:

**Seasonality in the U.S. Housing Market: Post-Pandemic Shifts and Regional Dynamics**

by Yihan Hu (University of Cambridge) and Yifei Huang(UCL)

Using Housing Price Index, inventory, and sales data from 1991–2024, the authors applied X-13ARIMA-SEATS seasonal decomposition and statistical tests. Key findings:

• Seasonal peaks shifted earlier (now March–April instead of traditional spring-summer)

• Amplified seasonal amplitude post-pandemic

• Strong regional heterogeneity — colder climates show more pronounced fluctuations

• Prices and sales volumes move in-phase, suggesting “thick-market” momentum

These insights are valuable for policymakers, realtors, investors, and anyone tracking post-pandemic economic recovery and housing dynamics.

Curious to hear the community’s thoughts:

– Have you noticed these earlier seasonal peaks in your local housing market?

– How should forecasting models adapt to these post-COVID shifts?

– What role do climate and regional factors play in housing seasonality?

Would love input from economists, real estate professionals, data analysts, and public health researchers interested in pandemic impacts!

#HousingMarket #RealEstate #PostPandemic #Seasonality #Economics #DataScience