[OC] “Heat pump” searches in Germany are back at crisis levels from previous years. Last time, sales surged a year later

Left axis (blue line): Google Trends interest for “Wärmepumpe” (heat pump) scaled 0–100 (100 = peak in April 2023). So it’s a relative measure.

Right axis (bars): Yearly heat pump sales from BWP and TGA Fachplaner.

What you see: In early 2022, gas prices spiked after the Ukraine invasion. People started googling heat pumps a lot, interest jumped. About a year later (2023), sales hit a record 356k units. That delay makes sense since installations usually take a while.

After that, things cooled off. Gas prices stabilized, subsidies got uncertain, and both searches and sales dropped. Sales fell to 193k in 2024 (−46%).

Now: Since late Feb 2026, heating oil prices increased massivly as you know. Search interest is picking up again, close to 2022 levels.

I just thought its cool to look at. Obviously this does not 100% turn into a sales surge as it did before, but perhaps it will lead to a change in thinking regarding the heating situation of many people here in germany.

A little bit more information: https://phuismann.github.io/datastories/waermewende-oelschock/ (German)

Created with python and I'd lie if claude did nothing here.