The math of creating a perfect NCAA bracket has been explored in depth, but using Monte Carlo simulation I was able to show it would require <1 trillion brackets to have created a perfect one in 2025. Simulations used sportsbetting odds and KenPom Efficiency Margin from before the tournament began.
Methods detailed here and attempting the 2026 tournament here
by Grouchy-Resolve141
1 Comment
Have you run a similar analysis for previous tournaments? Last year was definitely pretty tame in terms of upsets from what I remember. Feel like something like 2022 with a 15 seed making the elite eight would need quite a few more required brackets to be successful.