Last month I posted my 40,000 Monte Carlo simulations of Hungary’s upcoming election. It was 50/50. One month later, everything has changed. [OC]

A month ago I shared my election forecast here and it sparked a lot of debate. Since then, new polls came in, the model was updated (Chronicler-v2 → v3, soon to be open-sourced), and the election got one month closer.

The shift:

||Feb 9|Mar 8|Change|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|TISZA (opposition) majority|50.6%|71.7%|+21pp|
|Fidesz (Orbán) majority|45.0%|16.9%|-28pp|
|Deadlock|4.4%|11.4%|+7pp|
|Mi Hazánk enters parliament|26.4%|72.8%|+46pp|

It’s no longer a coin flip, TISZA wins the most seats in 77% of simulations. But the wild card is Mi Hazánk (far-right): if they cross the 5% threshold, they become a potential kingmaker and the deadlock probability nearly triples.

**Tools:** Python, PyMC, matplotlib.

Data: from the Vox Populi polling database [www.kozvelemeny.org](http://www.kozvelemeny.org)

Full analysis: [https://www.szazkilencvenkilenc.hu/forecast-2026-03-08/](https://www.szazkilencvenkilenc.hu/forecast-2026-03-08/)

Methodology: [https://www.szazkilencvenkilenc.hu/methodology-v2/](https://www.szazkilencvenkilenc.hu/methodology-v2/)

Previous forecast: [https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/1r4pi48/i_ran_40000_monte_carlo_simulations_of_hungarys/](https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/1r4pi48/i_ran_40000_monte_carlo_simulations_of_hungarys/)

Happy to answer questions about the model, the methodology, or Hungarian politics.

That´s if the election happens without corruption/interference …