From my blog, see link for full analysis: https://polimetrics.substack.com/p/copying-the-cops-next-door
Data sourced from Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) website. Visual made with R.
This analysis visualizes the rapid geographic diffusion of 287(g) agreements (local law enforcement partnerships with ICE) across U.S. counties and municipalities throughout 2025.
Key Data Highlights:
• 8x growth in 9 months: 135 localities (Jan 2025) → 1,035 (Sept 2025)
• Heavy geographic concentration: Florida (327 agreements, 32%) and Texas (185 agreements, 18%) account for roughly half of all partnerships nationwide
• Clear wave patterns: The maps show distinct temporal clusters:
• Early 2025: Southeast concentration
• Mid-2025: Expansion through Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Louisiana
• Late 2025: Midwest and Mountain West (Pennsylvania, Utah, Kansas)
What makes this interesting from a data perspective:
The geographic patterns demonstrate textbook policy diffusion – counties don’t adopt randomly, but in regional clusters following their neighbors. The month-to-month progression shows surges immediately after neighboring jurisdictions adopt, showing imitation-driven spread rather than independent decision-making.
Florida’s announcement that all 67 county jails signed simultaneously, and Texas’s 18 agreements unveiled at a single event, created “social proof” cascades visible in the subsequent adoption patterns.
How is your local government deciding whether to cooperate with ICE? Is it based on local opinions? Or just based on what the county next door does?
by Public_Finance_Guy
35 Comments
Once again, Florida “leading” the way.
I live near some counties that signed agreements and they’re definitely who I expected. Thankfully mine hasn’t signed one (yet, because I know it’s coming).
oh hell yeah none in oregon, washington, or california
devils advocate: i heard that having your local police sign up with ICE means they can meet their arrest number targets with people already arrested from local law enforcement, so they don’t have to run around in public and arrest random families like we’re seeing in chicago, LA.
Proud to be from Colorado
California, Oregon, Washington, Colorado, Iowa ,Illinois, Maine, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut, New Jersey, Delaware Vermont, ans surprisingly Louisiana. Holding out for the Constutution.
Everyone that signs a deal should be held complicit to the spread of hate and terror in this country.
Funny how our Republican federal officials in MT screeched about the southern border but they aren’t signing on to this
Can state governments put restrictions on local sheriffs’ authority to make direct agreements with the feds? Asking because I am sure there are right wing sheriffs in parts of Oregon, yet no agreements in Oregon.
>How is your local government deciding whether to cooperate with ICE? Is it based on local opinions? Or just based on what the county next door does?
The 2017 Illinois TRUST Act and Way Forward Act prohibits local law enforcement from cooperating with ICE. That’s why Illinois remains blank in the OP video.
A 4 month increment is not appropriate for a progressive gif my guy. Just post the static color coded photo sheesh.
Surprised Louisiana and Iowa don’t have any.
I understand CA, OR, WA, CO + IL, VT, ME, MA, CT, NJ
But.. Louisiana and Iowa!?!!!!
Is that a mistake?
Huh, that explains why, in my area, we’ve been seeing ICE even though we have little to no immigrant population. Our garbage conservative leadership made a deal with ICE.
well i believe they are in SD, california but i don’t know if thats connected to the police department or not.
ive been getting spam emails and thats their main office in CA
Spread of local authorities cooperating with federal ones? This wasn’t already in place?
Surprised that Oklahoma doesn’t have more counties filled in
Not surprised at Washington County, Garrett County, and Carroll County, MD being early adopters tbh…
Cops and congress are required to take an oath to defend the US constitution
“The US Constitution doesn’t explicitly mention immigration, but it does grant Congress the power to establish a uniform naturalization process. However, it doesn’t explicitly give the federal government the power to exclude or remove non-citizens. ”
“I, [name], do solemnly swear (or affirm) that I will support and defend the Constitution of the United States against all enemies, foreign and domestic; that I will bear true faith and allegiance to the same; that I take this obligation freely, without any mental reservation or purpose of evasion; and that I will well and faithfully discharge the duties of the office on which I am about to enter. So help me God.”
People often forget and I would say attack cities incorrectly for not working with ICE. I would even argue working directly with ICE is counter productive to local police primary job. There is also a huge difference between not helping and actively hurting and preventing ICE from doing their job.
A big city were I grew up I know at one time did not actively help ICE nor did they interfear. Their reasoning was emegrations enforcement is not the local PDs job and worse enforcing it would make their primary job harder. Their primary job is server and protect the local population. They did not want everyone to fear when they saw the local police that they were coming for deporting them, or some friend or family member. Instead if they were investigating a crime or city issue that all they cared about. Say someone has a neibhour harassing them, guess local police want to handle that as it is their job. They want people to feel safe calling 911 for help as they are coming to help. They dont want to know if the person is legal or not as it is not their job.
In the example above with the city, if they arrested someone they would not extend their time in holding for ICE. If ICE wanted them they had to be their before their normal release schedule. The city neither sped up nor slowed down how long someone was in holding. They might pick them up for being drunk with the plan to release them in the morning. They would not hold them an extra day because ICE wanted to look deeper. They provide ICE with no extra info that was not public info already. Flat out the city police and sheirf office was in the dont care about immigration status.
People just need to understand the differneces of not helping and acitvely hurting. Local police are just not helping. They should not change the process
are you guys alright over there? shit looks bleak
Curry County can get fucked. They’re more Texas than they are New Mexico. Clovis is a shit hole.
The racists in New Mexico’s Permian Basin sure like to talk a big game about immigration, until it threatens their labor force. I see no agreements in that region.
I sure would like to see how the numbers of actual apprehensions and deportations compare to this map.
Working at a municipality I am adjacent to law enforcement staff. It was especially depressing to see them stage outside of my workplace. An entire parking lot of unmarked chodes and an off-radar helicopter to arrest like 12 construction workers.
Shout out to St. Johns and St Lucie (and one other, Hendry?) counties, Fla for holding out despite the tide in the state.
None happening in Chicago (that we know of) likely explains at the lards in tan invaded in a moving truck
I’m in Canada so I’m not familiar with what’s going on. Are these like agreements that local police will tell the Nazis where the Jews are?
NH: Beinvenue to the Florida of New England!
I am honestly surprised that Iowa doesn’t have a single county highlighted.
Proud to be a Californian 💪
None in Iowa, that’s surprising considering how they lean politically
So this is just new 287(g) agreements during 2025, right? This doesn’t show existing 287(g) agreements, like Rensselaer County in upstate NY, which was in place before 2025.
I’m surprised I haven’t seen them in person in Florida yet. But then again, I live in a rural area.
this is where this war is being fought.
we all have to get involved in our local politics and push for anti ICE measures and legislation. its absolutely paramount.
if you dont know how to do that or where to start join a local org. DSA, PSL, there are lots doing exactly this right now and have been for years.
As conservative as NB and KS are, you’d think they’d light up.
But then…they are big farm states that rely on, uh, let’s just say document challenged individuals.
Do as I say and not as I do, right?