[OC] The name “Shelby” saw its most unexpected popularity spike in 1991, following Julia Roberts’ breakout role in Steel Magnolias
I analyzed ~150 years of SSA naming data to see which cultural events translated into the biggest unexpected spikes in popularity. Then I started researching to see how many I could tie back to specific events or people in pop culture.
**Data source:** U.S. Social Security Administration
**Tools:** Python / SQL / Hex
To identify unusually large popularity spikes, raw birth counts and percent change were insufficient. Common names naturally fluctuate by thousands, while rare names can double with very small absolute changes.
Instead, I used a Z-score to measure how extreme each year’s change was relative to the historical volatility of that name. This helps surface genuinely anomalous spikes rather than artifacts of scale.
auntieup on
Now look up the ages of people named Abigail or Abby in the United States, and cross-check those ages with the release dates of Signs and Little Miss Sunshine.
Isosorbide on
I wonder what caused the first spike of female popularity in the 1930’s?
dailycnn on
Not kidding, I think you are discounting another source..
1) You may be ignoring the Star Trek The Next Generation character Shelby which aired June 1990 and was a top episode of the series as a cliffhanger for season 3 into season 4. The episode when aired was viewed by 11 million people watching it when it aired, and even more with the second part. The character was an aggressive, and attractive woman who upset the chain of command of the show.
2) Contrast this with Steel Magnolias which was viewed by roughly 10-20 million people in 1990, roughly.
Of course both would have a longer term impact as shown in your graph.
Now practically I think the contribution of the Star Trek character here is small in comparison, but definitely not negligable.
mr_ji on
Her “breakout role”…because nobody ever heard of Pretty Woman
6 Comments
**Data source:** U.S. Social Security Administration
**Tools:** Python / SQL / Hex
To identify unusually large popularity spikes, raw birth counts and percent change were insufficient. Common names naturally fluctuate by thousands, while rare names can double with very small absolute changes.
Instead, I used a Z-score to measure how extreme each year’s change was relative to the historical volatility of that name. This helps surface genuinely anomalous spikes rather than artifacts of scale.
Now look up the ages of people named Abigail or Abby in the United States, and cross-check those ages with the release dates of Signs and Little Miss Sunshine.
I wonder what caused the first spike of female popularity in the 1930’s?
Not kidding, I think you are discounting another source..
1) You may be ignoring the Star Trek The Next Generation character Shelby which aired June 1990 and was a top episode of the series as a cliffhanger for season 3 into season 4. The episode when aired was viewed by 11 million people watching it when it aired, and even more with the second part. The character was an aggressive, and attractive woman who upset the chain of command of the show.
2) Contrast this with Steel Magnolias which was viewed by roughly 10-20 million people in 1990, roughly.
Of course both would have a longer term impact as shown in your graph.
Now practically I think the contribution of the Star Trek character here is small in comparison, but definitely not negligable.
Her “breakout role”…because nobody ever heard of Pretty Woman
I love the idea please keep going with it