**Context:** While many pointed out to the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria by the Bosnian Serb Gavrilo Princip as what caused World War I to happen, it was definitely *not* the only cause. To this day, it’s still debated about what the actual causes really were.
The world at that point in time was already heading toward a major conflict. The European powers were already stockpiling arms and armies. Imperialism reared its ugly head as old rivalries escalate. Countries grew mistrustful of others and tensions were high, eventually leading to them making alliances to protect themselves which threatened to drag them into a potential conflict when it breaks out. It was basically the Cold War before the Cold War.
Is the Great War inevitable? Maybe, maybe not. We did make it through the Cold War without it turning hot against all odds, after all. But it’s highly likely that even if Archduke Franz Ferdinand was not assassinated, there could be some other ‘spark’ that could easily ignite all the fuels already laying all over Europe and trigger a global conflict either way.
**Photo Source:** Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows (2011)
p_pio on
We don’t know what would happend without assasination. Morrocco crisis was close to triggering war, but it didn’t. Balkan Wars didn’t trigger it.
Maybe without assasination Franz Ferdinand would become keiser in 1916, would lead A-H to modernization which would create “perestroika” like effects and push it to Soviet-style collapse shifting focus of other nations on stabilizing central Europe and cleaning internal issues as Austrian problems would spread to Germany, Russia etc.
Or he would succeed. And maybe shift it out from Central Powers making WW1 unattainable.
At the end of the day significant impact on starting war got decisions made by few, often unelected so separated from broader society, individuals.
Calling war “ineviatable” is just a cop out.
Tall-Log-1955 on
Gavrilo Princep *was* a time traveler and his mission was to trigger the war before we developed nuclear weapons
Critical_Mountain851 on
Pretty sure Bismark himself said that the next big war would be started by “Some damn fool thing in the Balkans.”
Even if Franz Ferdinand lived, something else would’ve caused it
MagicCarpetofSteel on
Counterpoint: Ferdinand was **_adamantly_** against a war with Russia. As long as he was alive, Austria wouldn’t be getting into a war, and Germany wasn’t gonna fight with no friends.
Suns_Funs on
For 50 years there was immense threat of a nuclear war, but didn’t happen, if it had happened, people most certainly would have claimed that it was inevitable. The same thing with WW1, just because there were circustances that created the possibility of the world war, does not mean it actually was inevitable.
Angel_OfSolitude on
The archduke’s death was just an excuse. The tensions had been long brewing.
Culsandar on
Honor, Fear, and Self-interest.
There’s a book called On the Origins of War, written by Donald Kagan, that goes into this. WW1 was the last time war was seen as a great adventure, before the horrors of mechanized warfare had become evident to Europe.
Kagan argues that peace is not a passive state but requires active effort, planning, and sacrifice, usually by single individuals. Europe knew the war was coming long before it got there.
The archduke was just the unplugging of the levy.
ThyPotatoDone on
Saw a pretty interesting argument that, if not for Ferdinand, Germany likely would’ve won WWI.
The main factor in their defeat was easily-disrupted supply chains and a lack of synthetic materials to replace them; however, those were in active development, and being rolled out by the midpoint of the war. Given an extra decade or so, they would’ve been in a much stronger position.
Sampleswift on
It’s possible that the next flashpoint would be the Alsace-Lorraine area, due to German vs. French tensions (the French wanting it back due to the Franco-German War).
elderron_spice on
To be fair, if you kill the prominent militarists of that time, like Austrian and German chiefs of staff Franz Conrad von Hotzendorf and von Moltke respectively, or more importantly, the diplomatically incompetent Willy 2, then war would be abated. Much more if Bismarck retained his office, since his “Peace in Europe” doctrine was one of his “best” accomplishments.
Or if some time traveller gave ~~Wilhelm~~ Frederick III cancer treatments, then we could see a surviving German Empire to this day. Willy 3 was a liberal and sought to emulate his ~~granma~~ wife’s mother Queen Victoria’s British constitutional monarchy in Germany, but sadly, he died just months into his reign.
EDIT: Fix a lot of incorrect info.
GottJager on
Had there been no international crisis between April 1913 and January 1916 there would have been no war.
For the simple fact that in April of 1913 the German General staff had come to the conclusion that they could not beat Russia after that point, and so abandoned all war plans other than the Schlieffen plan. With only the Schlieffen plan any international crisis would result in Germany invading Russia, Belgium and France. However unlike the Nazis Germany isn’t going to stage a false flag attack to get the crisis they want.
Admitably this would be an uncommonly long period between crisis, however it woundn’t be unprecedented.
Large-Wheel-4181 on
Funny thing is, Chainsaw Man is actually fitting for this meme
Galendy on
Ahhh, a Sherlock Holmes movie being used as a meme template… Now gotta wait 50 more years to see it happen again
14 Comments
**Context:** While many pointed out to the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria by the Bosnian Serb Gavrilo Princip as what caused World War I to happen, it was definitely *not* the only cause. To this day, it’s still debated about what the actual causes really were.
The world at that point in time was already heading toward a major conflict. The European powers were already stockpiling arms and armies. Imperialism reared its ugly head as old rivalries escalate. Countries grew mistrustful of others and tensions were high, eventually leading to them making alliances to protect themselves which threatened to drag them into a potential conflict when it breaks out. It was basically the Cold War before the Cold War.
Is the Great War inevitable? Maybe, maybe not. We did make it through the Cold War without it turning hot against all odds, after all. But it’s highly likely that even if Archduke Franz Ferdinand was not assassinated, there could be some other ‘spark’ that could easily ignite all the fuels already laying all over Europe and trigger a global conflict either way.
**References:**
* [https://online.norwich.edu/online/about/resource-library/six-causes-world-war-i](https://online.norwich.edu/online/about/resource-library/six-causes-world-war-i)
* [https://www.bbc.co.uk/bitesize/articles/z9cvf82#zw8rbqt](https://www.bbc.co.uk/bitesize/articles/z9cvf82#zw8rbqt)
* [https://www.history.com/articles/did-franz-ferdinands-assassination-cause-world-war-i](https://www.history.com/articles/did-franz-ferdinands-assassination-cause-world-war-i)
* [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Causes_of_World_War_I](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Causes_of_World_War_I)
**Photo Source:** Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows (2011)
We don’t know what would happend without assasination. Morrocco crisis was close to triggering war, but it didn’t. Balkan Wars didn’t trigger it.
Maybe without assasination Franz Ferdinand would become keiser in 1916, would lead A-H to modernization which would create “perestroika” like effects and push it to Soviet-style collapse shifting focus of other nations on stabilizing central Europe and cleaning internal issues as Austrian problems would spread to Germany, Russia etc.
Or he would succeed. And maybe shift it out from Central Powers making WW1 unattainable.
At the end of the day significant impact on starting war got decisions made by few, often unelected so separated from broader society, individuals.
Calling war “ineviatable” is just a cop out.
Gavrilo Princep *was* a time traveler and his mission was to trigger the war before we developed nuclear weapons
Pretty sure Bismark himself said that the next big war would be started by “Some damn fool thing in the Balkans.”
Even if Franz Ferdinand lived, something else would’ve caused it
Counterpoint: Ferdinand was **_adamantly_** against a war with Russia. As long as he was alive, Austria wouldn’t be getting into a war, and Germany wasn’t gonna fight with no friends.
For 50 years there was immense threat of a nuclear war, but didn’t happen, if it had happened, people most certainly would have claimed that it was inevitable. The same thing with WW1, just because there were circustances that created the possibility of the world war, does not mean it actually was inevitable.
The archduke’s death was just an excuse. The tensions had been long brewing.
Honor, Fear, and Self-interest.
There’s a book called On the Origins of War, written by Donald Kagan, that goes into this. WW1 was the last time war was seen as a great adventure, before the horrors of mechanized warfare had become evident to Europe.
Kagan argues that peace is not a passive state but requires active effort, planning, and sacrifice, usually by single individuals. Europe knew the war was coming long before it got there.
The archduke was just the unplugging of the levy.
Saw a pretty interesting argument that, if not for Ferdinand, Germany likely would’ve won WWI.
The main factor in their defeat was easily-disrupted supply chains and a lack of synthetic materials to replace them; however, those were in active development, and being rolled out by the midpoint of the war. Given an extra decade or so, they would’ve been in a much stronger position.
It’s possible that the next flashpoint would be the Alsace-Lorraine area, due to German vs. French tensions (the French wanting it back due to the Franco-German War).
To be fair, if you kill the prominent militarists of that time, like Austrian and German chiefs of staff Franz Conrad von Hotzendorf and von Moltke respectively, or more importantly, the diplomatically incompetent Willy 2, then war would be abated. Much more if Bismarck retained his office, since his “Peace in Europe” doctrine was one of his “best” accomplishments.
Or if some time traveller gave ~~Wilhelm~~ Frederick III cancer treatments, then we could see a surviving German Empire to this day. Willy 3 was a liberal and sought to emulate his ~~granma~~ wife’s mother Queen Victoria’s British constitutional monarchy in Germany, but sadly, he died just months into his reign.
EDIT: Fix a lot of incorrect info.
Had there been no international crisis between April 1913 and January 1916 there would have been no war.
For the simple fact that in April of 1913 the German General staff had come to the conclusion that they could not beat Russia after that point, and so abandoned all war plans other than the Schlieffen plan. With only the Schlieffen plan any international crisis would result in Germany invading Russia, Belgium and France. However unlike the Nazis Germany isn’t going to stage a false flag attack to get the crisis they want.
Admitably this would be an uncommonly long period between crisis, however it woundn’t be unprecedented.
Funny thing is, Chainsaw Man is actually fitting for this meme
Ahhh, a Sherlock Holmes movie being used as a meme template… Now gotta wait 50 more years to see it happen again