Using two decades of federal data, the investigative reporter Brody Mullins and the Times Opinion graphics editor Gus Wezerek show how the class alignments of Democrats and Republicans have flipped. Brody writes:
>If Democrats don’t reverse course, they may soon find themselves unable to win presidential elections. Increasingly, the party is made up of urban professionals who graduated from four-year universities and command relatively high salaries. Having more of these supporters has been a boon to the party’s finances, but electorally, the shift has been a disaster.
>The electoral power of high-income voters is limited: Not only are they a smaller demographic, but they are also concentrated in a handful of coastal states that do not decide presidential elections. By contrast, the lower-income voters lost by Democrats are dispersed across the battleground states that increasingly determine the Electoral College outcome. Under this system, no candidate can win the presidency today without galvanizing the working class.
>For most of the past century, that was the Democratic Party’s political playbook. So what changed?
Data source: U.S. Census Bureau
*Median incomes presented in charts date to the first day of each congressional meeting. Incomes are adjusted for inflation to 2023 dollar equivalents.*
Tools used: d3, Datawrapper, Adobe Illustrator
RandomUsername_Taken on
Surely these comments will be civil.
adamosity1 on
And this is why republicans win.
Influence_X on
I think this is why AOC has so much appeal among the working class. And Bernie had rural appeal.
mayence on
an actual scale for income rank is needed here, viewers have no way to know what the income level is in these “poor” or “rich” districts
skysleeper22 on
But…but…I was told the Republicans where the party of the rich…
Edit: took no time at all to trigger every democrat lol
The-original-spuggy on
I mean duh. That’s why Trump won. He got the poorer areas of WV, Ohio, etc.
thatguy888034 on
It’s because working class voter tend to be more culturally conservative. The PMC/activist takeover of the Democratic Party caused this trend. It’s always funny when people say that democrats lost the working class because they embraced more right leaning economic policies. That played a part but the much bigger factor is that cultural liberalism came to dominate the party. Ask a Republican voting union member why he doesn’t vote Democrat. He won’t say it’s because they “embraced neoliberal economic policy” or something like that. He’ll tell you he thinks they hate America or something about trans people. Democrats are viewed as the party of college educated costal elites by a lot of people, and their views on social issues is a big part of that.
Right wing media plays a big part, framing every Democrat as some America hating communist which is obviously not true. The whole “decolonize America” type ideologues are confined mainly to academics and upper middle class to upper class people in New York or LA, but republicans are able to convince them that those people run the party.
qprcanada on
Now, overlay education levels.
LittleMsSavoirFaire on
Counterpoint: people in richer districts have enough education to be passingly familiar with civics, economics, and how taxes are used.
thingsorfreedom on
I think it’s an education level voting divide. College educated people on balance make more money and they heavily favor the Democrats.
Also, this statement I find to be a reach: *If Democrats don’t reverse course, they may soon find themselves unable to win presidential elections.*
The GOP won plenty of Presidential elections before this trend flipped and the Democrats won the popular vote in every Presidential election after 1988 except 2004 and 2024.
Realistic_Voice4964 on
“Rich” is relative
$40k in rural Georgia is rich – $40k in Southern California is poverty
Edit: from the article: “Democratic district’s median income had risen to $81,000, while that of the average Republican district had fallen to $69,000”
“Rich” indeed lol
APRForReddit on
This isn’t surprising. Even look at the NYC mayoral primaries – Mamdani won with rich, privileged voters and Cuomo won with the working class and people of color
foozefookie on
This is a phenomenon occuring across the developed world. Left wing parties are becoming more upper class.
The change is mainly driven by attitudes towards immigration. Landlords and business owners love immigration because it’s good for their profit margins, but tenants and working class people don’t because it creates more competition for housing and jobs.
Scrapheaper on
Guess they must be wrong then. Because you can only be right if you’re poor
PatchyWhiskers on
I think this depends on how you define rich. People who earn good money – educated people like doctors and lawyers – tend Democrat. Billionaires, the truly rich, tend Republican.
OldJames47 on
Huh, you choose as your leaders a Senator with connections to Wall St and a Congressman from Silicon Valley and suddenly those are the groups who get catered to.
scut207 on
People don’t remember the movie The Rainmaker and it shows.
GhostofInflation on
This will probably be unpopular here, but perhaps the seeds were sewn when the Obama admin bailed out the banks. The poors and middle class voted for him, the bailouts flowed to Wall Street (remember occupy Wall Street?), and the gulf between the rich and poors has greatly expanded since the GFC
ZealousidealGrab1827 on
Both parties are so beholden to their own special interests, PAC’s, and big money. And, with few exceptions, that ain’t focused on the average working person. As soon as people realize that we are not the actual priority, the sooner change will occur. Their goal is to keep us divided.
chuffpost on
So the areas represented by democrats are wealthier than in the past – but what about the wealth of the actual voters who vote for the party?
PatchyWhiskers on
I think this depends on how you define rich. People who earn good money – educated people like doctors and lawyers – tend Democrat. Billionaires, the truly rich, tend Republican.
lwp1331 on
Aren’t those two sides of the same coin? If more poorer people are voting Republican, by default the ratio of rich to poor voters is going up for Democrats.
RoofComplete1126 on
I don’t understand what these inroads refer to? The majority of republican legislation has targeted tax cuts for the ultra wealthy. You could also throw in new data center projects, decommissioned farmer contracts, and tariff hikes?
I think it’s more of a communication problem. The left has made strides in the last 8years to push for wealth tax increases, corporate regulation initiatives and the like.
25 Comments
Using two decades of federal data, the investigative reporter Brody Mullins and the Times Opinion graphics editor Gus Wezerek show how the class alignments of Democrats and Republicans have flipped. Brody writes:
>If Democrats don’t reverse course, they may soon find themselves unable to win presidential elections. Increasingly, the party is made up of urban professionals who graduated from four-year universities and command relatively high salaries. Having more of these supporters has been a boon to the party’s finances, but electorally, the shift has been a disaster.
>The electoral power of high-income voters is limited: Not only are they a smaller demographic, but they are also concentrated in a handful of coastal states that do not decide presidential elections. By contrast, the lower-income voters lost by Democrats are dispersed across the battleground states that increasingly determine the Electoral College outcome. Under this system, no candidate can win the presidency today without galvanizing the working class.
>For most of the past century, that was the Democratic Party’s political playbook. So what changed?
Read the full piece [here, for free](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/23/opinion/democrats-rich-poor.html?unlocked_article_code=1.vk8.PJzi.yhIkQp1_Hnt8&smid=re-nytopinion), even without a Times subscription.
Data source: U.S. Census Bureau
*Median incomes presented in charts date to the first day of each congressional meeting. Incomes are adjusted for inflation to 2023 dollar equivalents.*
Tools used: d3, Datawrapper, Adobe Illustrator
Surely these comments will be civil.
And this is why republicans win.
I think this is why AOC has so much appeal among the working class. And Bernie had rural appeal.
an actual scale for income rank is needed here, viewers have no way to know what the income level is in these “poor” or “rich” districts
But…but…I was told the Republicans where the party of the rich…
Edit: took no time at all to trigger every democrat lol
I mean duh. That’s why Trump won. He got the poorer areas of WV, Ohio, etc.
It’s because working class voter tend to be more culturally conservative. The PMC/activist takeover of the Democratic Party caused this trend. It’s always funny when people say that democrats lost the working class because they embraced more right leaning economic policies. That played a part but the much bigger factor is that cultural liberalism came to dominate the party. Ask a Republican voting union member why he doesn’t vote Democrat. He won’t say it’s because they “embraced neoliberal economic policy” or something like that. He’ll tell you he thinks they hate America or something about trans people. Democrats are viewed as the party of college educated costal elites by a lot of people, and their views on social issues is a big part of that.
Right wing media plays a big part, framing every Democrat as some America hating communist which is obviously not true. The whole “decolonize America” type ideologues are confined mainly to academics and upper middle class to upper class people in New York or LA, but republicans are able to convince them that those people run the party.
Now, overlay education levels.
Counterpoint: people in richer districts have enough education to be passingly familiar with civics, economics, and how taxes are used.
I think it’s an education level voting divide. College educated people on balance make more money and they heavily favor the Democrats.
Also, this statement I find to be a reach: *If Democrats don’t reverse course, they may soon find themselves unable to win presidential elections.*
The GOP won plenty of Presidential elections before this trend flipped and the Democrats won the popular vote in every Presidential election after 1988 except 2004 and 2024.
“Rich” is relative
$40k in rural Georgia is rich – $40k in Southern California is poverty
Edit: from the article: “Democratic district’s median income had risen to $81,000, while that of the average Republican district had fallen to $69,000”
“Rich” indeed lol
This isn’t surprising. Even look at the NYC mayoral primaries – Mamdani won with rich, privileged voters and Cuomo won with the working class and people of color
This is a phenomenon occuring across the developed world. Left wing parties are becoming more upper class.
The change is mainly driven by attitudes towards immigration. Landlords and business owners love immigration because it’s good for their profit margins, but tenants and working class people don’t because it creates more competition for housing and jobs.
Guess they must be wrong then. Because you can only be right if you’re poor
I think this depends on how you define rich. People who earn good money – educated people like doctors and lawyers – tend Democrat. Billionaires, the truly rich, tend Republican.
Huh, you choose as your leaders a Senator with connections to Wall St and a Congressman from Silicon Valley and suddenly those are the groups who get catered to.
People don’t remember the movie The Rainmaker and it shows.
This will probably be unpopular here, but perhaps the seeds were sewn when the Obama admin bailed out the banks. The poors and middle class voted for him, the bailouts flowed to Wall Street (remember occupy Wall Street?), and the gulf between the rich and poors has greatly expanded since the GFC
Both parties are so beholden to their own special interests, PAC’s, and big money. And, with few exceptions, that ain’t focused on the average working person. As soon as people realize that we are not the actual priority, the sooner change will occur. Their goal is to keep us divided.
So the areas represented by democrats are wealthier than in the past – but what about the wealth of the actual voters who vote for the party?
I think this depends on how you define rich. People who earn good money – educated people like doctors and lawyers – tend Democrat. Billionaires, the truly rich, tend Republican.
Aren’t those two sides of the same coin? If more poorer people are voting Republican, by default the ratio of rich to poor voters is going up for Democrats.
I don’t understand what these inroads refer to? The majority of republican legislation has targeted tax cuts for the ultra wealthy. You could also throw in new data center projects, decommissioned farmer contracts, and tariff hikes?
I think it’s more of a communication problem. The left has made strides in the last 8years to push for wealth tax increases, corporate regulation initiatives and the like.
what screwing Bernie does to a party