Started Tracking April 25th — 1,942 games so far
2 things tracked each game – total runs against sportsbook total and -1.5/+1.5 line
Results:
2,188 – 1,640 – 56
57.2% Correct
Units is important measure because some games have different odds on the -1.5/1.5 line
It's +131.8 Units
The model uses a machine learning neural network from this software and takes into account 76 team and opponent statistics.
by Academic_Mechanic470
4 Comments
Data and Visualization tool used is Solved Sports
These are all live results and not backtested? Pretty cool if true! Did you actually bet on each prediction or is this paper betting?
Do you have a confidence interval on winrate? My gut tells me that 3.4% ROI over 3800 bets is not quite statistically significant but its close so I’d not be surprised either way. Is the model completely yours or built off an existing one? Either way super cool stuff.
Does this mean that, at this point, you have a 7.2% advantage over the house, so to speak?